Public Spaces in Urban Developments

Public Spaces in Urban Developments Introduction In todays cities, designers are faced with the collective creation of a unified framework for new development, outdoor environmental challengers. Designers contribution is often to become after the fact, beauty treatment and abuse of patients is to create spaces for public using plan in the first place. In the urban development process as usual landscape located in an isolated object, rather than as streets, squares, large part of the building structure, and possible open space. (Roger Trancik,1986) Therefore, how to set up the space in most environments today was the important issue. Spoiling the city Guggenheim Museum Bilbao Bilbao, Spain It is one of the worlds most famous buildings; which is an attractive and impressive architectural works in many ways. Unfortunately, as a public space, it is very successful and even dangerous. Spectacular beauty and sculpture building, Bilbao Guggenheim Museum, monumentally for successful as a landmark building efforts, and also has attracted peoples attention on Bilbao city. However, the project has failed as a public space, missing an important opportunity to celebrate and support the cultural and community life that will pulsate throughout of the city. Highlight the center of Bilbao which located near the waterfront, the building disrupted city life, as an insult to a pedestrian who is willing to use anything more than other building gawking at this place. Frank Gehry, the architect who designed the museum, seem to fear that support, or even acknowledged that human activity and the surrounding buildings. The museum is likely to bring people to Bilbao, but it is only reduced the civic and cultural life, that is making people proud to have their life in cities. In addition, as a successful investment in the construction symbol, it limits the role of the architecture is just the icon. It received attention, the building overlooked the river, giving its prominent, and it ignores the large public places, whether it is comfortable, worst of all, it ignores the city, it is just to attract draw attention. Walking through Bilbao, the building make distraction from the most dynamic public space in Europe, that is the kind of some of the interference in community life. While the landmarks of power have been broadcast around the world, it can easily be interpreted as a human activity and civic life in attacks. Although Bilbao as a city could be close to the height of civilization, and Frank Gehrys is the status of an icon as a beacon of urban services, it is also a public space, that is a considerable diversion of civilization, should be suppose to celebrated. Architecture emerged to become a great success way that is able to reflect and support the building of civilization, culture and respect for the purpose of professional features. Gehrys building seems to fail in all these areas, thus causing great damage to Bilbao, and to the construction industry. The great buildings and major public places should be go hand and hand, but unfortunately, they rarely do so. The Guggenheim in Bilbaos arrogance and it indicates that the design and development approach is an insult to public places everywhere. Around this building, public space is a void in the civic life of great city. It can be said that this building has brought attention to Bilbao, but in this attention has been distracted, or at best a short-term high-sugar, for a city with some of Europes best public places in many ways. As the Museum not only just ignores the context, but also enhances the distance and hides Bilbao rich cultural and social life, it is a citys net loss. Canary Wharf London, UK There are many hidden views by outdoor public space and a maze of underground shops. While I came to this area, I feel even more disappointed than I expected. They have four outdoor public places and the numbers of shops in the underground like the labyrinth which hidden views in fact, it is difficult to find. All people in a public place are full of the car. Clearly, They argued that the public space or not; they think it is a car show, is to attract them to be more active. This has a very large scale in office park with complex rivals. It is complex case with the failure result for each. The bottoms of the buildings are excessive stark, empty, or conceal with columns to hide those use-things may try to contact in any purpose. Even if you stand back of the columns or arcades, and you get some good retail or a good entrance, the result is still grim, and not attractive. Any outside streets is uninteresting and not appealing. Some one would like to see a few more suitable characters to add, and some personality areas. Clearly, there has a very limited set of clientele who want to attract. Contrast to either Battery Park City or Rockefeller Center, it is so confused to mark Canary Wharf, is so far off the mark. Some one has thought as Winston Churchill, we are shaping our building, and then they are shaping us pretty scary! It is not easy to have a view connection. How do you think this element will enhance people community. It is obviously a car show. There are the tall buildings, cars surrounding the people who need a public space. Evaluation on Public Space In research for the public space, it is not hard to find, there are four qualities of success, and those decided it does work or not: accessible, activities, comfortable and community. Access Linkages You can determine whether it has convenience connections to a place or its surrounding areas, including visual and physical. A successful public space is easy to find and get through; it is visible in terms of short distance. The edges of a space key are also significant: for example, shops sit along a street will be more interesting and generally safer than walking in a blank wall. There is convenient public transport, if accessible spaces have a high parking turnover. Pioneer Courthouse Square, Portland Pioneer Courthouse Square, was known as the Portlands living room, as a public space in reference to enhance this place to gather in and use of citizens. These modern designs, including public art, recreational facilities, flowers, trees, and walls and sitting area were designed. This is a frequently occurring on-site, and includes a coffee shop, food suppliers, and information Center for Tri-Met (regional Portlands transit agency), which is the square key factor in the success of the redevelopment. From doubleduty the seating areas by integrate public art, flowers, trees, walls and ample stairs. This is the activities event of the site that used frequently, from enhanced a coffee shop and food vendors, and also as buses and light rail service in the center. Pioneer Courthouse Square is one of the first new regeneration of public spaces. It is no longer as a passive green space, and it designed for the square programming and supposed to use by public. In fact, for such the using infrastructure is built-in, but they are responsible for the management of space entities to ensure that there continued effective use. Pioneer Square, Law Courts Building, the process of creation the public debates, fund-raising, the grand opening ceremony were designed to support residents, which related to the Polish population. Funding and three visual connections were from Tri-Met contacted People with the square and city center as a whole. With an effective management organization, the square has become the citys pride place and the focus of a variety of community activities. Proved that the revitalization of downtown Portland square on the far-reaching impact livability. All kinds of the facilities support the each aspect of public space to community with people. Comfort Image Whether it is a comfortable space to have a good image, is the key to success. Comfort is including the safe aspect, cleanliness and the availability of places to sit let the people choose what they want to sit; most people have underestimated the importance of. In particular, women have the good judges on comfort and a good image for their more discrimination. Luxembourg Gardens, Paris, France Luxembourg Gardens is probably one of the most successful parks in the world, because so well in the fabric surrounding the city, which makes it has convenient integration. There are many things to do, where people who use it: children, the elderly people, the Sorbonne University students, widely shown that the people throughout the lunch break, and so on. People go to walk, play chess, sit down to read, people watching, sitting in a cafe or to bring their children or grandchildren woman to one of the childrens many attractions. Events happen in the park, including tennis, riding pony, puppet theatres, toy boat (child floating in their them by central fountain). Visitors also can stop within the Palace, and attended by the French Senate, which is a public open. The park also organized, such as aerial photographs, that from around the world in plastic wrap, and also hold innovative exhibitions and shows around the garden; a large wooden platform displayed the map which including photo website, providing people with slippers who wants to walk on it many of the same. Uses Activities Activity is an essential component of a place. Something to deal with, it need to gives people a reason to place and return. When there is anything we can do, a space will be empty, and usually means what is wrong. Kungstradgarden, Stockholm, Sweden Kungstradgarden is in the heart of the city, owed a little past incarnation from the royal family kitchen gardens to lush parks to drill the troops on the ground. The 1953 became the birthday celebrations of Stockholms 700-year-old site, and the central part of the management has been continuous since then, as a flexible event and performance space. It has also been the Swedish premiere of the stage: In 1953, the first hot dog has been served there, and Piccolino introduced coffee and coffee in this Kings Garden, to the delight of Swedish palates. In 1962, the first artificial ice frozen skating-rink is completed in the park, and the first outdoors chess set and placed that began in the seventies. It is the flourish status in Kungstradgarde, as its management capacity to adapt such seasonal use of a wide range of public spaces. One of the main elements in the Kungstradgarden is a large tent covering major stages in the warm terms, where they perform almost every day. Totally, it has nearly 150 stages happen each year. In addition to 100-150 days of exhibitions, a Christmas market in December over the weekend, as well as a host of other activities. There are trees in the courtyard and on both street-sides of restaurants. A steps to the sunken fountain is located in front of a restaurant, garden center is equipped with a large circular plaza, a winter skating rink. While there are some warm-weather activities such as chess, varieties of checkers, table tennis, in a small red cottage for which the equipment was is available occur to the extent of these activities. The garden was redesigned in 1998, although before there was the same like this moment in the world in terms of flexibility, the resulting layout is more rigid, so that many of these activities no longer possible. In addition, there is a demonstration playground provided for childrens playing. In all, however, Kungstradgarden is remain its popular, wonderful urban centers in the core of a well-ventilated place and compared with the most other places, it still has a wealth of events, activities and performances, each season, sponsored by local businesses and organizations, it is impressive. Sociability This is a difficult place to achieve quality, but once achieved it becomes a clear and unequivocal function. When people see friends, dating, meet their neighbors, should feel comfortable interaction with strangers, they tend to feel that attachment to the place or a sense of belonging in their communities and local promotion of these types of social activities. Jackson Square, New Orleans, LA This is the central square in New Orleans French Quarter is significant exquisite layout, with three park facing lush trees, flowers and approach in full of historical buildings. Outside the park, in addition to the establishment of the fence from the elegant, bustling with musicians, artists, suppliers, fluctuations in the activities of pedestrian access, and street performances. From the adjacent street is similarly impressive, highlighting the principle, we in the Spirit often described as reaching out like an octopus. When you are closer and closer to capture the views of an attractive square, street-level experience in change more interesting and look forward to is how to grasp the true power of you. Jackson Square is the number of sacred places in a particular city. This sacred place should be the cornerstone of the rebirth of New Orleans. If each community can renew the focus on the central public places such as Jackson Square itself, the city may be powerful hurricanes than ever before. Reference http://www.pps.org/

The Vampire Diaries: The Struggle Chapter Fourteen

Bonnie shivered as she waited outside the tall Victorian house. The air was frosty this morning, and although it was almost eight o'clock the sun had never really come up. The sky was just one dense massed bank of gray and white clouds, creating an eerie twilight below. She had begun to stamp her feet and rub her hands together when the Forbes' door opened. Bonnie moved back a little behind the shrubbery that was her hiding place and watched the family walk to their car. Mr. Forbes was carrying nothing but a camera. Mrs. Forbes had a purse and a folding seat. Daniel Forbes, Caroline's younger brother, had another seat. And Caroline†¦ Bonnie leaned forward, her breath hissing out in satisfaction. Caroline was dressed in jeans and a heavy sweater, and she was carrying some sort of white drawstring purse. Not big but big enough to hold a small diary. â€Å"There she is, Aunt Judith. On the corner.† The car slowed to a halt, and Bonnie slid into the back seat with Elena. â€Å"She's got a white drawstring purse,† she murmured into Elena's ear as Aunt Judith pulled out again. Tingling excitement swept over Elena, and she squeezed Bonnie's hand. â€Å"Good,† she breathed. â€Å"Now we'll see if she brings it into Mrs. Grimesby's. If not, you tell Meredith it's in the car.† Bonnie nodded agreement and squeezed Elena's hand back. They arrived at Mrs. Grimesby's just in time to see Caroline going inside with a white bag hanging from her arm. Bonnie and Elena exchanged a look. Now it was up to Elena to see where Caroline left it in the house. â€Å"I'll get out here too, Miss Gilbert,† said Bonnie as Elena jumped out of the car. She would wait outside with Meredith until Elena could tell them where the bag was. The important thing was not to let Caroline suspect anything unusual. Mrs. Grimesby, who answered Elena's knock, was the Fell's Church librarian. Her house looked almost like a library itself; there were bookcases everywhere and books stacked on the floor. She was also the keeper of Fell's Church's historical artifacts, including clothing that had been preserved from the town's earliest days. Just now the house was ringing with young voices, and the bedrooms were full of students in various stages of undress. Mrs. Grimesby always supervised the costumes for the pageant. Elena was ready to ask to be put in the same room with Caroline, but it wasn't necessary. Mrs. Grimesby was already ushering her in. Caroline, stripped down to her fashionable underwear, gave Elena what was undoubtedly meant to be a nonchalant look, but Elena detected the vicious gloating beneath. She kept her own eyes on the bundle of clothing Mrs. Grimesby was picking up off the bed. â€Å"Here you are, Elena. One of our most nicely preserved pieces – and all authentic, too, even the ribbons. We believe this dress belonged to Honoria Fell.† â€Å"It's beautiful,† said Elena, as Mrs. Grimesby shook out the folds of thin white material. â€Å"What's it made of?† â€Å"Moravian muslin and silk gauze. Since it's quite cold today you can wear that velvet jacket over it.† The librarian indicated a dusty rose garment lying over a chair back. Elena cast a surreptitious glance at Caroline as she began to change. Yes, there was the bag, at Caroline's feet. She debated making a grab for it, but Mrs. Grimesby was still in the room. The muslin dress was very simple, its flowing material belted high under the bosom with a pale rose. â€Å"Did it really belong to Honoria Fell?† she asked, thinking of the marble image of that lady lying on her tomb in the ruined church. â€Å"That's the story, anyway,† said Mrs. Grimesby. â€Å"She mentions a dress like it in her journal, so we're pretty sure.† â€Å"She kept a journal?† Elena was startled. â€Å"Oh, yes. I have it in a case in the living room; I'll show it to you on the way out. Now for the jacket – oh, what's that?† Something violet fluttered to the ground as Elena picked the jacket up. She could feel her expression freeze. She caught up the note before Mrs. Grimesby could bend over, and glanced at it. One line. She remembered writing it in her diary on September 4, the first day of school. Except that after she had written it she had crossed it out. These words were not crossed out; they were bold and clear. Something awful is going to happen today. Elena could barely restrain herself from rounding on Caroline and shaking the note in her face. But that would ruin everything. She forced herself to stay calm as she crumpled up the little slip of paper and threw it into a wastebasket. â€Å"It's just a piece of trash,† she said, and turned back to Mrs. Grimesby, her shoulders stiff. Caroline said nothing, but Elena could feel those triumphant green eyes on her. Just you wait, she thought. Wait until I get that diary back. I'm going to burn it, and then you and I are going to have a talk. To Mrs. Grimesby she said, â€Å"I'm ready.† â€Å"So am I,† said Caroline in a demure voice. Elena put on a look of cool indifference as she eyed the other girl. Caroline's pale green gown with long green and white sashes was not nearly as pretty as hers. â€Å"Wonderful. You girls go ahead and wait for your rides. Oh, and Caroline, don't forget your reticule.† â€Å"I won't,† Caroline said, smiling, and she reached for the drawstring bag at her feet. It was fortunate that from that position she couldn't see Elena's face, for in that instant the cool indifference shattered completely. Elena stared, dumbfounded, as Caroline began to tie the bag at her waist. Her astonishment didn't escape Mrs. Grimesby. â€Å"That's a reticule, the ancestor of our modern handbag,† the older woman explained kindly. â€Å"Ladies used to keep their gloves and fans in them. Caroline came by. â€Å"I'm sure it was,† Elena managed in a strangled voice. She had to get out of here or something awful was going to happen right now. She was going to start screaming – or knock Caroline down – or explode. â€Å"I need some fresh air,† she said. She bolted from the room and from the house, bursting outside. Bonnie and Meredith were waiting in Meredith's car. Elena's heart thumped strangely as she walked to it and leaned in the window. â€Å"She's outsmarted us,† she said quietly. â€Å"That bag is part of her costume, and she's going to wear it all day.† Bonnie and Meredith stared, first at her and then at each other. â€Å"But†¦ then, what are we going to do?† Bonnie asked. â€Å"I don't know.† With sick dismay this realization finally came home to Elena. â€Å"I don't know!† â€Å"We can still watch her. Maybe she'll take the bag off at lunch or something†¦Ã¢â‚¬  But Meredith's voice rang hollow. They all knew the truth, Elena thought, and the truth was that it was hopeless. They'd lost. Bonnie glanced in the rearview mirror, then twisted in her seat. â€Å"It's your ride.† Elena looked. Two white horses were drawing a smartly renovated buggy down the street. Crepe paper was threaded through the buggy's wheels, ferns decorated its seats, and a large banner on the side proclaimed,The Spirit of Fell's Church. Elena had time for only one desperate message. â€Å"Watch her,† she said. â€Å"And if there's ever a moment when she's alone†¦Ã¢â‚¬  Then she had to go. But all through that long, terrible morning, there was never a moment when Caroline was alone. She was surrounded by a crowd of spectators. For Elena, the parade was pure torture. She sat in the buggy beside the mayor and his wife, trying to smile, trying to look normal. But the sick dread was like a crushing weight on her chest. Somewhere in front of her, among the marching bands and drill teams and open convertibles, was Caroline. Elena had forgotten to find out which float she was on. The first schoolhouse float, perhaps; a lot of the younger children in costume would be on that. It didn't matter. Wherever Caroline was, she was in full view of half the town. The luncheon that followed the parade was held in the high school cafeteria. Elena was trapped at a table with Mayor Dawley and his wife. Caroline was at a nearby table; Elena could see the shining back of her auburn head. And sitting beside her, often leaning possessively over her, was Tyler Smallwood. Elena was in a perfect position to view the little drama that occurred about halfway through lunch. Her heart leaped into her throat when she saw Stefan, looking casual, stroll by Caroline's table. He spoke to Caroline. Elena watched, forgetting even to play with the untouched food on her plate. But what she saw next made her heart plummet. Caroline tossed her head and replied to him briefly, and then Stefan looked toward Elena as he left, and for a moment their eyes met in wordless communion. There was nothing he could do, then. Even if his Powers had returned, Tyler was going to keep him away from Caroline. The crushing weight squeezed Elena's lungs so that she could scarcely breathe. After that she simply sat in a daze of misery and despair until someone nudged her and told her it was time to go backstage. She listened almost indifferently to Mayor Dawley's speech of welcome. He spoke about the â€Å"trying time† Fell's Church had faced recently, and about the community spirit that had sustained them these past months. Then awards were given out, for scholarship, for athletics, for community service. Matt came up to receive Outstanding Male Athlete of the Year, and Elena saw him look at her curiously. Then came the pageant. The elementary school children giggled and tripped and forgot their lines as they portrayed scenes from the founding of Fell's Church through the Civil War. Elena watched them without taking any of it in. Ever since last night she'd been slightly dizzy and shaky, and now she felt as if she were coming down with the flu. Her brain, usually so full of schemes and calculations, was empty. She couldn't think anymore. She almost couldn't care. The pageant ended to popping flashbulbs and tumultuous applause. When the last little Confederate soldier was off the stage, Mayor Dawley called for silence. â€Å"And now,† he said, â€Å"for the students who will perform the closing ceremonies. Please show your appreciation for the Spirit of Independence, the Spirit of Fidelity, and the Spirit of Fell's Church!† The applause was even more thunderous. Elena stood beside John Clifford, the brainy senior who'd been chosen to represent the Spirit of Independence. On the other side of John was Caroline. In a detached, nearly apathetic way Elena noticed that Caroline looked magnificent: her head tilted back, her eyes blazing, her cheeks flushed with color. John went first, adjusting his glasses and the microphone before he read from the heavy brown book on the lectern. Officially, the seniors were free to choose their own selections; in practice they almost always read from the works of M. C. Marsh, the only poet Fell's Church had ever produced. All during John's reading, Caroline was upstaging him. She smiled at the audience; she shook out her hair; she weighed the reticule hanging from her waist. Her fingers stroked the drawstring bag lovingly, and Elena found herself staring at it, hypnotized, memorizing every bead. John took a bow and resumed his place by Elena. Caroline threw her shoulders back and did a model's walk to the lectern. This time the applause was mixed with whistles. But Caroline didn't smile; she had assumed an air of tragic responsibility. With exquisite timing she waited until the cafetorium was perfectly quiet to speak. â€Å"I was planning to read a poem by M. C. Marsh today,† she said, then, into the attentive stillness, â€Å"but I'm not going to. Why read fromthis – † She held up the nineteenth century volume of poetry. † – when there is something much more†¦ relevant†¦ in a book I happened to find?† Very slightly, almost imperceptibly, Stefan shook his head. Caroline's fingers were dipping into the bag as if she just couldn't wait. â€Å"What I'm going to read is about Fell's Churchtoday , not a hundred or two hundred years ago,† she was saying, working herself up into a sort of exultant fever. â€Å"It's importantnow , because it's about somebody who's living in town with us. In fact he's right here in this room.† Tyler must have written the speech for her, Elena decided. Last month, in the gym, he'd shown quite a gift for that kind of thing. Oh, Stefan, oh, Stefan, I'm scared†¦ Her thoughts jumbled into incoherence as Caroline plunged her hand into the bag. â€Å"I think you'll understand what I mean when you hear it,† Caroline said, and with a quick motion she pulled a velvet-covered book from the reticule and held it up dramatically. â€Å"I think it will explain a lot of what's been going on in Fell's Church recently.† Breathing quickly and lightly, she looked from the spellbound audience to the book in her hand. Elena had almost lost consciousness when Caroline jerked the diary out. Bright sparkles ran along the edges of her vision. The dizziness roared up, ready to overwhelm Elena, and then she noticed something. It must be her eyes. The stage lights and flashbulbs must have dazzled them. She certainly felt ready to faint any minute; it was hardly surprising that she couldn't see properly. The book in Caroline's hands lookedgreen , not blue. I must be going crazy†¦ or this is a dream†¦ or maybe it's a trick of the lighting. But look at Caroline's face! Caroline, mouth working, was staring at the velvet book. She seemed to have forgotten the audience altogether. She turned the diary over and over in her hands, looking at all sides of it. Her movements became frantic. She thrust a hand into the reticule as if she somehow hoped to find something else in it. Then she cast a wild glance around the stage as if what she was looking for might have fallen to the ground. The audience was murmuring, getting impatient. Mayor Dawley and the high school principal were exchanging tight-lipped frowns. Having found nothing on the floor, Caroline was staring at the small book again. But now she was gazing at it as if it were a scorpion. With a sudden gesture, she wrenched it open and looked inside, as if her last hope was that only the cover had changed and the words inside might be Elena's. Then she slowly looked up from the book at the packed cafetorium. Silence had descended again, and the moment drew out, while every eye remained fixed on the girl in the pale green gown. Then, with an inarticulate sound, Caroline whirled and clattered off the stage. She exploded into comment, argument, discussion. Elena found Stefan. He looked as if jubilation was sneaking up on him. But he also looked as bewildered as Elena felt. Bonnie and Meredith were the same. As Stefan's gaze crossed hers, Elena felt a rush of gratitude and joy, but her predominant emotion was awe. It was a miracle. Beyond all hope, they had been rescued. They'd been saved. And then her eyes picked out another dark head among the crowd. Damon was leaning†¦ no, lounging†¦ against the north wall. His lips were curved into a half smile, and his eyes met Elena's boldly. Mayor Dawley was beside her, urging her forward, quieting the crowd, trying to restore order. It was no use. Elena read her selection in a dreamy voice to a babbling group of people who weren't paying attention in the slightest. She wasn't paying attention, either; she had no idea what words she was saying. Every so often she looked at Damon. There was applause, scattered and distracted, when she finished, and the mayor announced the rest of the events for that afternoon. And then it was all over, and Elena was free to go. She floated offstage without any conscious idea ofwhere she was going, but her legs carried her to the north wall. Damon's dark head moved out the side door and she followed it. The air in the courtyard seemed deliciously cool after the crowded room, and the clouds above were silvery and swirling. Damon was waiting for her. Her steps slowed but did not stop. She moved until she was only a foot or so away from him, her eyes searching his face. There was a long moment of silence and then she spoke. â€Å"Why?† â€Å"I thought you'd be more interested inhow. † He patted his jacket significantly. â€Å"I got invited in for coffee this morning after scraping up an acquaintance last week.† â€Å"But why?† He shrugged, and for just an instant something like consternation flickered across his finely drawn features. It seemed to Elena that he himself didn't know why – or didn't want to admit it. â€Å"For my own purposes,† he said. â€Å"I don't think so.† Something was building between them, something that frightened Elena with its power. â€Å"I don't think that's the reason at all.† She moved closer, so that she was almost touching him, and looked at him. â€Å"I think,† she said, â€Å"that maybe you need to be pushed.† His face was only inches away from hers, and Elena never knew what might have happened if at that moment a voice hadn't broken in on them. â€Å"Youdid manage to make it after all! I'm so glad!† It was Aunt Judith. Elena felt as if she were being whisked from one world to another. She blinked dizzily, stepping back, letting out a breath she hadn't realized she was holding. â€Å"And so you got to hear Elena read,† Aunt Judith continued happily. â€Å"You did a beautiful job, Elena, but I don't know what was going on with Caroline. The girls in this town are all acting bewitched lately.† â€Å"Nerves,† suggested Damon, his face carefully solemn. Elena felt an urge to giggle and then a wave of irritation. It was all very well to be grateful to Damon for saving them, but if not for Damon there wouldn't have been a problem in the first place. Damon had committed the crimes Caroline wanted to pin on Stefan. â€Å"And whereis Stefan?† she said, voicing her next thought aloud. She could see Bonnie and Meredith in the courtyard alone. Aunt Judith's face showed her disapproval. â€Å"I haven't seen him,† she said briefly. Then she smiled fondly. â€Å"But I have an idea; why don't you come to dinner with us, Damon? Then afterwards perhaps you and Elena could – â€Å" â€Å"Stop it!† said Elena to Damon. He looked politely inquiring. â€Å"What?† said Aunt Judith. â€Å"Stop it!† Elena said to Damon again. â€Å"You know what. Just stop it right now!†

Testing The Validity Of International Fisher Effect Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 15 Words: 4478 Downloads: 2 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Economics Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? Foreign exchange trading refers to trading one countrys money for that of another country. The need for such trade arises due to tourism, international trade, or investments across boundaries. The foreign-exchange market, as we usually think of it, refers to large commercial banks in financial centers, like New York or London, trading foreign-currency-dominated deposits among each other. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Testing The Validity Of International Fisher Effect Finance Essay" essay for you Create order Theories aiming to explore and understand interactions in international monetary variables became increasingly more important as deregulations and international integration of financial markets throughout the world continued to evolve and increase faster than it has ever been. One theory linked two important financial variables, exchange rates and interest rates, is the International Fisher Effect (IFE). IFE states that future spot exchange rates can be determined from nominal interest differentials. In turn, real interest rate will be equalized across the world through arbitrage. Differences in observed nominal interest rates will be stemming from differences in expected inflations. These differences in anticipated inflations are embedded in nominal interest rates as described by Fisher equation. The effect of these variables on exchange rates are more likely to occur under flexible exchange rates where currencies are allowed to fluctuates without government interventions b ut rather lift to free market forces to determine the appropriate exchange rates. In this project, some of the most important theories in international finance literature are going to be explored with an attempt to clarify the logic behind them as well as the basic mathematical formulas that describes these theories. After that, a statistical test will be employed using regression analysis on two currencies that are viewed to be the most traded and free of, or more realistically, exhibit minimal government interventions. The test aims to verify the validity of IFE theory and its explanatory power of fluctuations in exchange rates. However, an overview of the market is going to explore the history of foreign exchange market in addition to the major products and players in that particular market. 2. Foreign-Exchange Market: an Overview 2.1 Historical background: Table 1: Historical background Key aspects Major issues Gold Standard From 1876 to 1913 Each currency is convertible into gold at a specified rate Price of each currency relative to the other is determined by gold convertibility rate Suspended when World War I began in 1914 Some attempts were made in the 1920s to go back to the gold standard, but the Great Depression stood for them Bretton Woods Agreement Was signed in 1944 Called for fixed exchange rate between currencies Governments had to prevent their currencies from moving more than 1% By 1971 the dollar was overvalued as demand for dollar was less than supply Governments had difficulty in maintaining exchange rates at their pre-specified levels Smithsonian Agreement Signed in 1971 Devalued the dollar Allowed currencies to fluctuates in either direction by 2.25% Governments had difficulties in maintaining exchange rate despite the wider limits Floating exchange Started in 1973 after floatation of dollar Free market forces dri ve values of currencies 2.2 Market instruments Table 2: Market instruments Definition Issues Spot market Immediate exchange of currencies The most common type of foreign exchange transactions Forward market Buying and selling currencies at a specified price today but future delivery Mostly used by multinational corporations and speculators Used to eliminate uncertainty Currency swaps Buying one currency today and selling another in the future in one transaction It is a spot and forward transaction in one deal Mostly used in interbank trading in order to avoid excessive transaction costs It serves as a borrowing and lending operations combined Options A contract that provides the right to buy or sell a given amount of currency at a specified price in the future The right holder pays a non-refundable premium to the option writer Like forward contracts except forwards are obligation on both parties while options are obligations only on the option writer Mainly used for risk hedging strategies 2.3 Market structure and players Foreign exchange markets involves hundreds of thousands participants at any given day; among those are hundreds of banks facilitating foreign exchange transactions, but the top 20 banks handle about 50% of the market. Deutsche Bank, Citibank and J.P. Morgan Chase are the largest traders in the market. (5) Commercial banks charge fees for conducting foreign exchange transactions. Banks bid (buy) foreign currencies at a price and ask (sell) them at a higher price. The bid/ask spread covers banks costs plus a profit margin. Usually, bid/ask spreads are functions profit margins of banks and of the risk of the currency, liquidity risk for instance. At any given point in time, exchange rate between two currencies should be similar across the various banks otherwise an arbitrage opportunity arises immediately. If a bank experiences a shortage in a particular foreign currency, it can purchase that currency from another bank in what is called interbank market. Usually, the interbank m arket takes place through brokers (10 brokerage firms handle most of the transactions in this market). (5) Central banks play an integral role in the foreign exchange market. Exchange rates affect the competitive position of products of a country in the international market place through changes in the relative price of currencies. This is the main reason for government intervention in the exchange market. Central banks like the Federal Reserve in the U.S. buy and sell currencies to drive values of their currency to level the free market would not establish. For example, buying dollars and selling pounds would lower supply of dollar and increase the pound which will eventually drives the price of the dollar upward and pushes the pound downward (supply and demand game) (6). The course of normal operations of the government might require some foreign currencies which can be another reason for central banks to operate in the foreign exchange market. 3. Theoretical framework: International Fisher Effect In this section, the theoretical frame that describes factors affecting exchange rates are going to be described. The section begins with purchasing power parity (PPP) that relates changes in exchange rates to inflation differential between two countries. The intuition behind the theory and its versions (absolute and relative) are going to be explained in addition to the basic mathematical frame of the theory. After that, the analysis will head to the Fisher equation which states that nominal interest rate in a country is a function of real interest rate plus a premium for anticipated inflation. That theory is not directly related to exchange markets but it builds a necessary bridge to the International Fisher Effect. The section ends with linking the above-mentioned theories, namely PPP and Fisher equation, to form the International Fisher Effect (IFE). IFE relates exchange rate changes to interest rate differentials between two currencies. That theory, if valid, allows fore ign exchange market participants to predict movements in exchange rates using widely available public information which is market interest rates. By the end of this section, we are going to be equipped by enough theory to start analyzing historical data to assess how closely markets move to what Fisher predicted in his theory. 3.1 Purchasing power parity Purchasing power parity (PPP) has two versions: absolute and relative. Absolute PPP states that exchange rate between any two currencies should be equal to the ratio of their price indexes (6). If we let E denotes exchange rate of the foreign currency and Ph and Pf be the price index of the home and foreign country, respectively, the relation can be described mathematically, (1) Equation 1 can be restated differently, (2) Equation 2 is called the Law of One Price (6). That means prices of domestically produced products equal prices of foreign countrys products in the local currency. If that condition was violated, domestic consumers will shift consumption from foreign products to domestic products when prices of foreign products increase relative to domestic products and the vice versa if prices of foreign countrys products decrease. When that happens, exchange rates will adjust to cancel out the price difference between the two countries to retain equilibrium. Re lative PPP stresses the relative change in exchange rate as well as price indexes. It holds that the percentage change in foreign exchange rate equals the difference between percentage change in price indexes of home (domestic) and foreign country (5). Since percentage change in price index is called inflation rate, relative PPP can be stated as percentage change in foreign exchange rate equals inflation differential between the two countries. Mathematically, (3) Where: Percentage change in foreign currencys exchange rate Home countrys inflation Foreign countrys inflation Equation 3 is just an approximation of the mathematical formula of relation PPP. In order to arrive the precise definition of International Fisher Effect, later on, the exact relative PPP needs to be established. First, we assume that price index of home Ph and foreign country Pf are equal. Relative PPP suggests that foreign currency exchange rate will change if inflation differs between any home and foreign country. Now, if we let ef be the percentage change in foreign currency; then, domestic consumer will perceive prices of the foreign countrys goods to be (4) And to maintain relative PPP, the following should be true (5) Solving fore ef (6) Since Ph=Pf, (as we assumed earlier) (7) Equation 7 states, in plain language, that the foreign currency price relative to home currency will appreciate if domestic inflation exceeds foreign inflation, and vice versa, proportionally to inflation differential. The chart bellows shows graphically how inflation differential and relative change in exchange rate should behave if relative PPP holds. The y-axis represents inflation differential while x-axis represents relative change in foreign exchange rate. Arguments of PPP, whether relative or absolute, makes economic sense under very simplified assumptions that does not capture the complexity if the real world. The table bellow shows these assumptions and th eir limitation. Table 3: Limitation of Purchasing Power Parity Assumption Critique Price indexes of different countries is composed of the same basket of goods and services In reality different nations consumes different bundles of goods and services Every product is traded internationally Not necessarily true due to cultural differences like pork in Saudi Arabia and some times due to legal reasons like quotas Products are homogeneous and perfect substitutes for each other In real world, people view different brands differently and companies usually try to differentiate their products from those of competitors No cost is associated with international trade This assumptions ignores tariffs, transportation costs and assumes that information is free 3.2 Fisher equation Economists distinguish between real and nominal interest rates .Nominal interest rate is the rate observed in the market while real interest rate is a concept that measures returns after adjusting for inflation and is assumed to be the same internationally (6). In presence of arbitrage, capital markets will be integrated worldwide. That means real interest rates are determined by global supply and demand of funds. In an internationally integrated capital market, domestic real interest rate is dependent upon events inside as well as outside the country. If real interest rate in a country were higher compared to another, a flow of capital will push supply of funds upward toward equilibrium. Nominal interest rate will tend to incorporate inflation expectations to provide lenders with a real return for the use of their money. This inflation-expectation effect on nominal interest rate is called the Fisher Effect and can be expressed by the Fisher equation. Let i and r denominat es nominal and real interest rate, respectively, then (8) This can be re-arranged as (9) However, this theory, too, has its limitation, namely the equality of real interest rates across the world. The argument behind this idea implicitly assumes that investors view domestic and foreign assets as perfect substitutes. (3) However, many factors prevents free flow of capital across borders including psychological barriers, legal constraints, political risk, exchange rate risk, taxes and transactions costs. If we assumed that markets are perfect and capital is completely mobile then we can safely assume that real interest rates are equal worldwide. Since a relations has been established between interest rate and inflation rate and that we have PPP which links inflation with exchange rate, a relation between interest rate and exchange rate can be established which is known as the International Fisher Effect IFE. 3.3 International Fisher Effect International Fisher Effect is a theory that links PPP with the Fisher effect that were discussed earlier. The rational behind IFE follows the following logical sequence. Since relative changes in exchange rate according to the relative PPP equals inflation differential and since nominal interest rate, too, changes with inflation and since real returns are equal in different countries; then inflation differential exactly equals nominal interest rate differential between any two countries as the chart illustrates graphically. IFE logic, discussed above, can be easily followed using mathematical formulas of relative PPP and the Fisher equation and some algebraic manipulations, Equations 7 (relative PPP) and equation 8 (Fisher equation) discussed earlier are reproduced here (7) (8) Equation 8 can be rearranged to be (10) Substituting equation 10 in equation 7 results in (11) Since (from the fisher effect theory), equation 11 becomes (12) Equations 1 2 is the IFE which states that relative changes in foreign exchange rate is proportional to nominal interest differential, see the chart bellow. 4. Statistical testing and investigation of IFE This is the last section in this paper where IFE is tested based on real world observations rather than logical and conceptual tests. The section begins with a brief discussion of previous tests on PPP, Fisher equation and IFE. Then, a major assumption about the test is established before discussing the statistical model used to test IFE. At the end, the results are shown and discussed in order to find a reasonable interpretation of any deviation from the IFE theory. 4.1 Previous research results Tests of PPP: Much research has been conducted to test whether PPP exists. Most studies found evidence of significant deviations from PPP that persisted even in the long run. Hakkio, however, found that even for exchange rates that deviated from PPP they tend to move toward the value predicted by the theory suggesting that inflation differentials can be used to forecast long-run movements in exchange rates. (5) Tests of International Fisher Effect: Whether the IFE holds in reality depends on the particular time period examined. Although IFE theory may hold during some time frames, there is evidence that it does not consistently hold. Thomson tested the IFE by constructing 216 transactions in order to see whether currencies with higher interest rates would generate excess profit compared to domestic interest rates or the difference will be offset, as IFE predicts, by depreciation of the currency with higher interest rate. The test resulted in 57% profitable transactions. In addition, the average gain exceeded the average loss indicating that the IFE does not hold. (5) 4.2 Statistical test of IFE Since IFE theory was established in the previous section, an immediate question is whether IFE explains changes in foreign exchange market in the real world. In order to do that, a statistical analysis was conducted on historical data of two major currencies against the dollar, namely British pound and Japanese yen. These currencies were chosen for the following reasons. Dollar, pound and yen are the most liquid currencies in the market which eliminates any liquidity risk factor that might affect our analysis. The political system and the stability of governments lower default risk to minimal in order to be able to compare interest rate on government bonds. Finally, availability of data was a main concern, for example, Euro is a relatively new currency that does not have a long historical time series in order to be able to conduct a reliable test. 4.2.1 Data Monthly and quarterly data beginning from 1979 of U.S dollars, British pounds and from 1985 to 2006 of Japanese yen and there respective interest rates were used in the statistical analysis. Data goes back to 1979 for two reasons. First, using monthly or quarterly data for a period from 1979 to 2006 for British pound and American dollar would provide us with a sample of 335 and 111 observations which are reasonable sample sizes (257 and 86, respectively, for Japanese yen). The smaller the sample the less confidence we have in any statistical inference and we might run in period specific results. Second, if an attempt to go further in historical data was made; we might get caught in periods were market forces did not have the power to freely determine the appropriate exchange rates which will obviously backfire the validity of any testing attempt. Data of exchange rate of U.S dollars and British pounds and their respective interest rate data were downloaded from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England websites, respectively. The Japanese Yen exchange rate and Japanese interest rate was download ed from the website of Bank of Japan. In this report, nominal interest rate is defined as the yield on short term government bonds. 4.2.2 Efficient market hypothesis In order to test IFE statistically, we are forced to make one more assumption. The assumption is that foreign exchange markets are efficient, i.e. rational expectation theory applies. Market efficiency implies that a market has many well informed participants who react immediately to any information which will drive prices immediately to their appropriate levels. Due to the fact that an enormous number of well informed individuals, corporations and institutional investors who trade and speculates in more than a trillion dollars a day in the foreign exchange market; it is safe to assume that exchange rates react rationally to changes in the fundamentals that affects prices in a matter of seconds. This assumption is critical to our test. If this assumption was violated then any discrepancy from whatever the ory we are testing might be due to inefficiency and/or irrationality of market participant rather than a deficiency in the theory. 4.2.3 Regression model IFE as discussed earlier can be described mathematically by equation 12 and it is reproduced here, (12) With algebraic manipulation equation 12 becomes (13) If we let represents time then, (14) Equation 14 states that, percentage change in the future spot rate should equal interest rate differential in the current period. Now let ; Equation 14 becomes, (15) Equation 15 is the equation we are going to base our testing of IFE on. However, to make it functional in statistical testing; equation 15 needs to be turned into regression form as the following, (16) Where: is random Equation 16 (the regression model, herein and thereafter) is the model to be used in the statistical test. From equation 15, we know that our parameters should be and If any of these conditions was not met, then IFE doe s not hold. In order to do that 95% confidence level will be used to test these two hypotheses. 4.3 Results A summary of the test results is provided in the table bellow. Pound (monthly data) Pound (Quarterly data) Yen (monthly data) Yen (quarterly data) Period 1979 2006 1979 2006 1985 2006 1985 2006 # observations 335 111 257 86 Does evidence support IFE No No No No Results of data analysis are presented here. The analysis covered two currencies against U.S dollars and covered two pairs which are U.S dollars against 1) British pounds; 2) Japanese Yen. The test was run twice on each pair. The first used monthly data and quarterly in the second. The point from that is to see if changes in the term would have any effect on the result of the test. Complete results of regression analyses are provided in appendix 1. Other pairs could have been tested, too, but that would not have added any value. For example, British pounds against Japanese Yens can be analyzed the same way. However, the exchange rate between them has already been determined from using cross rates of U.S $ / pounds and U.S $ / Yens. That means if Pounds / Yens were tested it merely duplicates an already tested hypothesis. 4.3.1 U.S dollars against British pounds (1979 2006) P-Value 95% confidence interval Notes Period 1979 2006 Sample size 335 Large sample size R2 3.15% 0.001 R2 indicates weak relation between interest and changes in exchange rate ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 0.0048 0.035 (- 0.0093 , 0.0003) Does not include the hypothetical value which is zero ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 -0.2713 0.001 (- 0.4336 , 0.1091) Does not include the hypothetical value which is one From the table above, the data covered a reasonably long period of time providing us with a sufficient sample size. Using the P-value of each parameter ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 as well as the overall regression model; the model and each estimated parameter are considered statistically significant at 5% significance level. A condition of the accuracy of the model is the randomness of the error term. The chart bellow supports this assumption. Using the regression results shows a very weak relation, as indicated by the R2, between interest differentials and changes in exchange rates which contrast IFE theory. The analysis indicates that interest rate differential explains only 3.5% of the variation in exchange rate leaving 96.5% to be explained by other variables. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0, which is statistically significant at 5% significance level, did not include zero in the 95% confidence interval which contradicts the hypothetical value established by IFE which is zero. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 is supposed to be 1 according to IFE. However, the analysis revealed a significant deviation not only in value but also in direction as it carried, at 95% confidence level, a negative value opposed to positive one predicted by IFE. From all of that, it can be stated with 95% confidence that data does not support IFE. Using quarterly data, estimates of parameters differ than monthly data, however, the conclusion is still the same. For more details of the test results of both monthly and quarterly data go to appendix 1. 4.3.2 U.S dollars against Japanese yens (Monthly Data) (1985 2006) P-Value 95% confidence interval Notes Period 1985 2006 Sample size 257 Large sample size R2 2.9% 0.006 R2 indicates weak relation between interest and changes in exchange rate ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 0.01 0.002 (- 0.004 , 0.002) Does not include the hypothetical value which is zero ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 -0.27 0.006 (- 0.46 , 0.077) Does not include the hypothetical value which is one From the table above, the data covered a reasonably long period of time providing us with a sufficient sample size. Using the P-value of each parameter ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 as well as the overall regression model; the model and each estimated parameter are considered statistically significant at 5% significance level. Another condition of the accuracy of the model is the randomness of the error term. The chart bellow support this assumption. Using the regression results shows a very weak relation, as indicated by the R2, between interest differentials and changes in exchange rates which contrasts IFE theory. The analysis indicates that interest rate differential explains only 2.9% of the variation in exchange rate leaving 97.1% to be explained by other variables. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0, which is statistically significant at 5% significance level, did not include zer o in the 95% confidence interval which contradicts the hypothetical value established by IFE which is zero. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 is supposed to be 1 according to IFE. However, the analysis revealed a significant deviation from that not only in value but also in direction as it carried, at 95% confidence level, a negative value opposed to positive one predicted by IFE. From all of that, it can be stated with 95% confidence that data does not support IFE. 4.3.3 U.S dollars against Japanese yens (Quarterly Data) (1985 2006) P-Value 95% confidence interval Notes Period 1985 2006 Sample size 86 Large sample size R2 7,2% 0.01 R2 indicates weak relation between interest and changes in exchange rate ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 0.027 0.005 ( 0.008 , 0.047) Does not include the hypothetical value which is zero ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 0.8 0.012 (0.178 , 1.43) Includes the hypothetical value which is one From the table above, the data covered a reasonably long period of time providing us with a sufficient sample size. Using the P-value of each parameter ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 and ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 as well as the overall regression model; the model and each estimated parameter are considered statistically significant at 5% significance level. Another condition of the accuracy of the model is the randomness of the error term. The chart bellow supports this assumption. Using the regression results shows a weak relation, as indicated by the R2, between interest differentials and changes in exchange rates which contrast IFE theory. The analysis indicates that interest rate differential explains only 7.2% of the variation in exchange rate leaving 92.8% to be explained by other variables. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0, which is statistically significant at 5% significance level, did not include zero in the 95% confi dence interval which contradicts the hypothetical value established by IFE which is zero. ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 is supposed to be 1 according to IFE. The regression estimate is 0.8 which is quite near that hypothetical value compared to monthly analysis. Moreover, 95% confidence interval includes the hypothetical value which indicates that this data is in line with IFE. Although ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²1 estimate follows IFE, the regression results showed weak relation as indicated by the R2 and showed that ÃÆ'Ã… ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ²0 is not as predicted by the theory. As a result, IFE is rejected using 95% confidence level. 5. Conclusion and implications of results Empirical analysis using linear regression model at 5% significanse level on monthly and quartly data of U.S dollar against the british pound for the period from (1979 2006) and from July (1985-2006) for U.S dollar against Japanese yen did not support IFE. That is in line with previous tests of the theory. The deviation from IFE can be mainly due to weaknesses in the bases it was built on which is PPP and Fisher effect as discussed in earlier sections. Moreover, foreign exchange market fluctuates due to many factors and not limited to interest rate differentials. The factors include, but not limited to, economic growth, fiscal policies, movement of capital due to relative factor costs, market attractiveness (both real and financial markets) in addition to political and legal environments. Moreover, Macroeconomic variables are not the only determinants of exchange rates as market micro-structure has its effects, too. For market participants who try to forecast movement in for eign exchange market by using changes in nominal interest rate, at least in the short run, will be as good as if they flipped a coin to forecast exchange rates. Finally, according to IFE, borrowing from countries with lower interest rates would be as good as borrowing from countries with high interest rate as movement in exchange rates would cancel the advantage of lower interest rates. However, the result of the test supports the idea of finding bargains in countries with low interest rates which contradicts International Fisher Effect theory. The same thing applies for fixed income investments across boundaries. Appendix 1: Full results of the regression models U.S dollar vs. British pound: Monthly data: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.1774 R Square 0.0315 Adjusted R Square 0.0286 Standard Error 0.0298 Observations 335 ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 0.0096 0.0096 10.8188 0.0011 Residual 333 0.2954 0.0009 Total 334 0.3050     Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept -0.0048 0.0023 -2.1152 0.0352 -0.0093 -0.0003 X Variable 1 -0.2713 0.0825 -3.2892 0.0011 -0.4336 -0.1091 Quarterly data: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.306794105 R Square 0.094122623 Adjusted R Square 0.085811821 Standard Error 0.01886649 Observations 111 ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 0.00403119 0.00403119 11.32533624 0.0010 Residual 109 0.038797943 0.000355944 Total 110 0.042829134     Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept -0.019254418 0.001790964 -10.7508701 8.17996E-19 -0.0228 -0.0157 X Variable 1 -0.117530134 0.034923976 -3.36531369 0.001056468 -0.1867 -0.0483 U.S dollar vs. Japanese Yen Monthly data: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.169889 R Square 0.028862 Adjusted R Square 0.025069 Standard Error 0.021709 Observations 258 ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 0.003586 0.0036 7.6083 0.006229 Residual 256 0.120644 0.0005 Total 257 0.124230     Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 0.023966 0.0013582 17.645 3.9E-46 0.021291 0.0266 X Variable 1 -0.107714 0.0390505 -2.758 0.00623 -0.184615 -0.030 Quarterly data: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.2686396 R Square 0.0721672 Adjusted R Square 0.0611216 Standard Error 0.0646435 Observations 86 ANOVA  df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 0.027302 0.027302 6.533557 0.012386 Residual 84 0.351018 0.004179 Total 85 0.378320     Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 0.027923 0.009696 2.880013 0.005044 0.008643 0.047 X Variable 1 0.803041 0.314169 2.556082 0.012386 0.178282 1.428

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